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The Reform UK leader portrays his Reform UK party as a distinct phenomenon that has exploded on to the world stage, its rapid ascent an exceptional epochal event. But this week, in every one of the continent's major countries and from India and Southeast Asia to the US and South America, far-right, anti-immigrant, anti-globalization parties like his are also leading in the opinion polls.

During recent Czech voting, the conservative, pro-Putin populist Andrej Babiš overthrew prime minister Petr Fiala. A French political group, which has just brought down yet another France's leader, is ahead the polls for both the presidential race and the legislature. In the German nation, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is currently the leading party. A Hungarian political force, Robert Fico’s pro-Russian Slovakian coalition and the Brothers of Italy are already in power, while the Austrian FPÖ, the Dutch PVV and Belgian Vlaams Belang – all staunch nationalist groups – are part of an international coalition of opponents of global cooperation, inspired by far-right propagandists such as a well-known figure, seeking to overthrow the global legal order, weaken fundamental freedoms and destroy multilateral cooperation.

Rise of Populist Nationalism

The populist nationalist surge reveals a new and unavoidable truth that supporters of democracy ignore at our peril: an authoritarian ethnic nationalism – once thought toppled with the historic barrier – has replaced neoliberalism as the leading belief system of our age, giving us a world of priorities: “America first”, “Indian focus”, “Chinese emphasis”, “Russian primacy”, “group priority” and often “my tribe first and only” regimes. It is this nationalist sentiment that helps explain why the world is now composed of many autocratic states and fewer democratic ones, and ethnic nationalism is the force behind the breaches of international human rights law not just by one nation in conflict but in almost every one of the world’s 59 cross-border conflicts and civil wars.

Understanding the Underlying Forces

Crucial to understand the root causes, common to almost every country, that have fuelled this new age of nationalism. It begins with a widely felt sense that a globalisation that was open but not inclusive has been a free for all that has been unjust to all.

For more than a decade, political figures have not only been slow to respond to the many people who feel excluded and marginalized, but also to the shifting dynamics of global economic power, transitioning from a unipolar world once led by the US to a multi-power landscape of competing superpowers, and from a rules-based order to a power-based one. The nationalist ideology that this has incited means open commerce is being replaced by trade barriers. Where market forces used to drive government policies, the nationalist agendas is now driving economic decisions, and already more than 100 countries are running mercantilist policies characterized by bringing production home and ally-focused trade and by restrictions on cross-border trade, investment and knowledge sharing, sinking global collaboration to its lowest ebb since the post-war period.

Optimism in Public Opinion

However, there is hope. The cement is still wet, and even as it solidifies we can find hope in the common sense of the global public. In a poll conducted for a major foundation, of thousands of individuals in 34 countries we find a clear majority are more resistant to an divisive nationalist agenda and more willing to embrace global teamwork than many of the officials who rule over them.

Across the world there is, maybe unexpectedly, only a small group of hardened anti-internationalists representing a minority of the global population (even if a quarter in the United States currently) who either feel coexistence between ethnic and religious groups is unattainable or have a zero-sum mindset that if they or their country do well, it has to be at the expense of others doing badly.

However there are another 21% at the opposite extreme, whom we might call committed internationalists, who either still see international collaboration through free commerce as a positive sum win-win, or are what an influential thinker calls “rooted cosmopolitans”.

Worldwide Public Position

The vast majority of the world's citizens are somewhere in between: not isolated patriots, as “America first” ideology would suggest, or all-in cosmopolitans. They are devoted to their country but don’t see the world as in a permanent conflict between the “our side” and the “others”, opponents permanently set apart from each other in an unbridgeable divide.

Are most moderates prefer a duty-free or a dutiful world? Are they prepared to accept responsibilities beyond their garden gate or community boundaries? Yes, under certain conditions. A initial segment, about a fifth, will support humanitarian action to relieve suffering and are prepared to act out of altruism, backing disaster relief for affected areas. Those we might call “good cause” multilateralists feel the pain of others and believe in something bigger than themselves.

Another segment comprising a similar percentage are practical cooperators who want to know that any public funds for international development are used effectively. And there is a final category, 21%, self-interested multilateralists, who will approve teamwork if they can see that it benefits them and their communities, whether it be through ensuring them food on the table or safety and stability.

Forging a Collaborative Consensus

So a definite majority can be built not just for emergency assistance if money is well spent but also for international measures to deal with global problems, like climate crisis and pandemic prevention, as long as this argument is argued on grounds of enlightened self-interest, and if we stress the reciprocal benefits that benefit them and their own country. And thus for those who have long wondered whether we work together from necessity or if we have a need to cooperate, the response is both.

This willingness to cooperate across borders shows how we can reverse the anti-foreigner sentiment: we can overcome current pessimistic, isolated and often forceful and controlling nationalism that demonises immigrants, foreigners and “others” as long as we champion a positive, globally engaged and inclusive patriotism that addresses people’s need for community and connects to their everyday worries.

Tackling Key Issues

And while detailed surveys tell us that across the Western nations, unauthorized entry is currently the biggest national issue – and it's clear that it must quickly be brought under control – the snapshots of opinion also tell us that the public are even more worried by what is happening in their personal circumstances and within their immediate neighborhoods. Recently, the UK Prime Minister spoke movingly about how what’s good about Britain can drive out what’s negative, doing so precisely because in most western countries, “dysfunctional” and “in decline” are the words people have for years most commonly cited when asked about both our financial system and community.

However, as the prime minister also reminded us, the far right is more interested in using complaints than ending them. Nigel Farage hailed a ill-fated economic plan as “the best Conservative budget” since 1986. But he would also implement a similar plan – what was planned – the biggest ever cuts in government programs. The party's proposal to cut government expenditure by £275bn would not repair downtrodden communities but ravage them, turn citizen against citizen and wreck any sense of unity. Under a far-right government, you will not be able to afford to be ill, impaired, poor or at-risk. Every day from now on, and in every constituency, Reform should be asked which hospital, which educational institution and which government service will be the first to be cut or closed.

The Stakes and the Alternative

“This ideology” is economic theory at its most cruel, more destructive even than monetary policy, and vindictive far beyond austerity. What the public are indicating all over the west is that they want their governments to restore our financial systems and our communities. “The party” and its global allies should be revealed repeatedly for policies that would harm both. And for those of us who believe our greatest achievements could be ahead of us, we can go beyond highlighting the party's contradictions by presenting a argument for a improved nation that appeals not just to visionaries, but to pragmatists, to personal benefit, and to the everyday compassion of the British people.